Quarterly Reports

September 30, 2018 Quarterly Letter

2018-10-10T21:47:23+00:00

"At Poplar Forest, we approach investing the way I shop at Oliver’s – by focusing on what’s on sale. We don’t buy every special (some things are on sale for worrisome reasons), but when we see a good deal on a great stock, we jump on it. I think this bottom up approach is better than preparing a list at home (equivalent to a top-down forecast), then simply buying everything on that list. And can you imagine the index fund approach to grocery shopping – simply buying a little of everything in the store?" - J. Dale Harvey

September 30, 2018 Quarterly Letter 2018-10-10T21:47:23+00:00

June 30, 2018 Quarterly Letter

2018-07-03T13:25:23+00:00

While it may be difficult to believe after having won three of the last four NBA championships, in the not so distant past, the Golden State Warriors looked like a value investment. At an estimated current market value of $3.1 billion, they are anything but a value investment today, and are certainly a far cry from the $450 million price tag when they were an unloved and underappreciated team just eight years ago. In this month’s quarterly letter, Dale discusses the importance of imagination, conviction and patience in value investing, especially when value investing is out of favor. Just as Joe Lacob and Peter Guber applied these traits when purchasing the downtrodden Warriors in 2010, we continue to apply them every day in our investment process while sticking to our game plan of seeking market-beating, long-term results for our investors.

June 30, 2018 Quarterly Letter 2018-07-03T13:25:23+00:00

March 31, 2018 Quarterly Letter

2018-05-01T18:45:05+00:00

“We want to understand the volatility of each underlying business, how much leverage is being deployed, the downside in a recession and the price we are paying relative to the underlying value of the company. We invest in companies for the long run when we see a favorable tradeoff between these risks and expected returns in a normal/mid-cycle time frame. We think a recession is likely sometime in the next few years and we want to be comfortable that we will survive a spill in the financial halfpipe without a trip to the intensive care unit. We believe that judgement, hard work and discipline are keys to our investment survival.” - J. Dale Harvey

March 31, 2018 Quarterly Letter 2018-05-01T18:45:05+00:00

December 31, 2017 Quarterly Report

2018-01-25T14:22:49+00:00

“Wildfires and earthquakes shouldn’t really come as a surprise to those of us who live in California, yet, when they occur, it is still a shock. The advice we get is to “expect the unexpected” – to prepare by setting aside drinking water and shelf-stable food that might be needed in an emergency. There are parallels to the idea of planning for the aftermath of a natural disaster and being prepared in advance of an unexpected market downturn. For one, financial strength is a factor that is emphasized in our analysis of investments – I suppose that’s akin to having your home bolted to the foundation, a practice that reduces earthquake damage. At Poplar Forest, we also prefer companies that have sustainable free cash flow, which may be equivalent to those supplies of water and canned food. Finally, we use scenario analysis to examine how our investments will perform, not just in good times, but also in the equivalent of investment wildfire.” - J. Dale Harvey

December 31, 2017 Quarterly Report 2018-01-25T14:22:49+00:00

September 30, 2017 Quarterly Report

2017-10-12T15:01:51+00:00

“When looking at stocks, I think from the perspective of someone who owns the whole business with plans to own it indefinitely. The enterprise is sure to have both good and bad years, but what I concern myself with is the average year – what I consider “normal” – or, said another way, what the business should be able to do as opposed to what it currently is doing. Where others may get scared away by sub-normal results, the opportunity to close the gap between current and normal whets my appetite.” - J. Dale Harvey

September 30, 2017 Quarterly Report 2017-10-12T15:01:51+00:00

June 30, 2017 Quarterly Report

2017-09-15T17:29:03+00:00

“Too often, I’ve seen investors chase performance to their detriment while ignoring opportunities to invest in good strategies when they are out-of-sync with the broad market. While it may sound counterintuitive, Poplar Forest’s results right now are as bad as they ever have been relative to the S&P 500®, and I believe that makes this a particularly compelling time to invest with us.”- J. Dale Harvey

June 30, 2017 Quarterly Report 2017-09-15T17:29:03+00:00

March 31, 2017 Quarterly Report

2017-09-15T17:30:09+00:00

For many investors, the current investment environment feels challenging. The new administration in Washington is charting a very different path than that pursued by the Obama team. For much of the preceding eight years, the Federal Reserve was the focus of investor attention.

March 31, 2017 Quarterly Report 2017-09-15T17:30:09+00:00